What Was Accomplished

Seven commits landed in the last 12 hours, delivering on operational improvements and daily tasks:

Service remained at v0.75.3 (no new releases today).

Tasks Completed Today (Last 12h)

Self-improvement successfully closed all 4 child issues (#3236–#3239). Trading pipeline ran cleanly. Morning review dispatched and merged on time.

What Failed and Why

1. Codex gpt-5.3-codex — 6 Failures in 12h (Worst Agent)

Codex continues failing at the account level: "model is not supported when using Codex with a ChatGPT account." This is an account-level restriction, not a transient error. Failover to claude works, but wastes one dispatch attempt per codex-routed task. The model is not being permanently cooled because this error variant differs from the "not supported" / "model unavailable" patterns fixed in #3241.

Root cause: the account-level restriction message may not match the cooldown classifier patterns. If record_persistent_model_failure is not being called for this variant, codex/gpt-5.3-codex will retry indefinitely.

Action: Verify whether gpt-5.3-codex is accumulating a failure count. If the error isn't triggering ModelUnavailable, it needs to be added to the classifier.

2. Multi-Agent Degradation: kimi + minimax + olm

At approximately 12:30 UTC, sync.rs logged: multi-agent degradation detected — degraded_count=3 ["kimi", "minimax", "olm"]. Active cooldowns at retrospective time:

kimi and minimax both failed again today. With 3 agents degraded simultaneously and opencode/gpt-5-mini on extended cooldown, the effective routing pool is narrow: claude and opencode free models only.

3. Transient GitHub Connectivity (Port 443 Failures)

Between 12:02–12:30 UTC, multiple tasks hit "Failed to connect to github.com port 443" timeouts:

• internal:151556 (morning review) — push_failed, then recovered
• internal:151440 (trading update) — push_failed at 12:28
• Multiple HTTP send failed warnings on GitHub API calls

This caused a slow tick (76.9s, threshold 60s) and a watchdog stall alert (67s). All failures were transient — network recovered. Not a bug.

4. Router LLM Timeout for This Task

The router tried to use opencode/nemotron-3-super-free to classify this retrospective task and timed out after 45s (attempt 1/3). The task was eventually dispatched via fallback routing to claude/sonnet. Indicates nemotron was under load or rate-limited at routing time.

5. internal:151553 — Empty Branch, Stuck in needs_review Loop

Morning briefing task had no commits on its branch. When review phase triggered:

• Review detected "no PR and no commits" → tried to re-route
• Fallback PR creation failed: "Head sha can't be blank, No commits between main and branch"
• Task reset to needs_review for retry

Root cause: the agent completed without committing any changes (pure text output, no file changes). Task is now looping in needs_review. This is a design gap — tasks with no file changes should mark themselves done, not enter review.

6. internal:151442 Auto-Unblock Did Not Fire

Self-improvement parent task (internal:151442) remains blocked despite all 4 child issues (#3236–#3239) being closed. The engine's auto-unblock mechanism (Phase 4 of tick) should unblock parents when all children are done. The failure to trigger suggests either: (a) the children were tracked as GitHub issues rather than orch tasks, so the parent-child link wasn't established in the DB, or (b) a bug in the auto-unblock query.

Task Run Outcomes (Last 12h)

Routing Analysis

Routing accuracy: Good. Complex tasks went to claude/opus, medium to sonnet/opencode. No obvious misrouting in completed tasks.

Model pool health: Severely degraded at evening snapshot. kimi, minimax, olm all cooled; opencode/gpt-5-mini on 4h cooldown. Effective pool: claude (sonnet/opus) + opencode free tier. This is functional but leaves no margin if claude degrades.

Codex routing: Still broken for gpt-5.3-codex. With the ChatGPT account restriction, codex tasks reliably fail on first attempt before falling back to claude. Routing accuracy is fine; the wasted first attempt is the cost.

Router LLM selection: nemotron-3-super-free timing out during routing is concerning — it's the same model successfully completing agent tasks, so load/contention may be the cause.

Blocked Tasks Summary

Day 23 SSH issue (internal:149337) remains the most critical unresolved operator action. Each day this persists, push-dependent tasks accumulate in blocked state.

Priorities for Tomorrow

Operator (Critical)

1. Restart service — Clear ghost process:

   brew services restart orch
   orch version

2. Unblock internal:149337 — Day 23, SSH key not loaded (critical):

   ssh-add ~/.ssh/default_id_ed25519
   orch task unblock all

3. Close internal:151495 — Old evening retro task superseded by today's. Review cycles exhausted with no value to recover.

4. Investigate internal:151442 — Verify whether all 4 children (issues #3236–#3239) are linked as orch tasks or just GitHub issues. If no DB link, manually reset parent to done.

Monitoring

5. Verify codex gpt-5.3-codex failure classification — Check whether "model is not supported when using Codex with a ChatGPT account" triggers ModelUnavailable and permanent cooldown. If not, it needs to be added to the classifier, or the model removed from config.

6. Watch opencode/gpt-5-mini post-cooldown — Extended cooldown expires in ~4h. Monitor whether parse_error rate is still elevated on return. If 2+ parse_errors in first 10 runs after return, investigate response format drift.

7. kimi recovery — Monitor if kimi recovers cleanly (as it did after the 22h cooldown on June 2). If it fails immediately after cooldown, investigate whether the provider issue is persistent.

8. Prune dead opencode model entries — Day 6 carry-over:

   • github-copilot/gpt-5.3 — dead, long-cooled
   • github-copilot/claude-opus-4.6 — dead Operator action in ~/.orch/config.yml.

Systemic

9. Empty-branch tasks entering review loop — internal:151553 is stuck because the agent produced no file changes. Review should detect zero commits and mark done, not loop indefinitely.

Prepared by Orch automation (internal:151555)

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